2015 Preseason Prediction #2 - David Price

David Price pitched better for the Tigers than you realize (stats are from FanGraphs).  

2014	IP	BABIP	LD%	GB%	FB%	K%	BB%
TB	170 2/3	0.301	20.7%	40.5%	38.8%	27.4%	3.3%
DET	77 2/3	0.317	20.5%	42.7%	36.8%	25.6%	4.7%

There's not much difference in the batted ball data (line drive, fly ball and ground ball rates).  The strikeout rate is lower, but still higher than any other season.  The walk rate is the biggest jump, but not at an alarming rate.  However, Price had a 3.59 ERA for the Tigers, which was up from a 3.11 ERA on the Rays.  The stats show it is most likely the defense that was the biggest difference.  

2014	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA
TB	3.11	2.93	2.70	2.63
DET	3.59	2.44	2.89	2.92

The ERA estimators show that Price should have had an ERA below 3.00 last year, for both the Tigers and Tampa Bay.  The good news is that the Tigers should have a better overall defense in 2015.  If Jose Iglesias is healthy and is the primary shortshop, that is a huge improvement in the infield defense.  It's also hard to imagine Nick Castellanos to be worse than his historically bad 3B defense.  All three OF spots should also provide better overall defense.  

David Price is entering his age 29 season in 2015, an age that is usually right in the middle of "prime" years, therefore a repeat performance shouldn't be out of the question.  His K/9 was over 9.0 for the first time in his career last year.  For the 2nd straight year, his BB/9 was under 2.0.  If both these trends continue in 2015, he could have his best season yet.  

The other number that jumps out is his innings pitched.  Price had pitched a total of 248 1/3 innings in 2015, which is the 5th most a pitcher has thrown in a single season over the last 5 years.  Given his age, it shouldn't be a cause for alarm yet; the four pitchers ahead of him pitched somewhere between 227 and 238 innings the following year.  Bearing injury, there should be no reason to expect Price to not pitch over 200 innings again in 2015.  I do find it interesting that there is a lot of similarity to Justin Verlander in innings pitched per game started over the years: 

IP/GS	Age 26	Age 27	Age 28	Age 29	Age 30	Age 31
Verlander	6.9	6.8	7.4	7.2	6.4	6.4
Price	6.8	6.9	7.3	???	???	???

There might be some cause for concern later on, but not in 2015, if there is any correlation to decreasing number of innings and performance that Verlander has shown.    

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	192	13-9	3.23	1.11	179	37
CAIRO	218	14-10	3.03	1.15	215	39
ZiPS	210 2/3	15-9	3.67	1.19	204	40
RotoChamp	200	16-7	2.88	1.09	202	33
CBS Sports	240	19-7	2.89	1.09	253	43
ESPN	224	17 W	3.25	1.08	216	37
MLB.com	220	16-9	3.03	1.07	218	31
FanGraphs' Fans (21)	228	16-9	3.23	1.04	231	40

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2014 Prediction	-	-	-	-	-	-
2014 Actual	248 1/3	15-12	3.26	1.079	271	38
2015 Predicion	234 2/3	18-7	3.03	1.074	238	40

Fantasy Impact:  According to Mock Draft Central, Price is being taken 35th overall, which is the end of the 3rd round in a standard 12-team league.  This is about where I'd put him.  Price may barely be out of the top 5 SP ranking, but he's definitely in the top 10.  With a high strikeout rate, low ERA and WHIP, he'll be able to anchor your starting pitching.   

  

2015 Preseason Prediction #1 - Miguel Cabrera

There's only so much that can be said about Miguel Cabrera before it becomes repetitive and boring.  Back-to-back MVPs, multiple All-Star appearances, .300 average, 11 straight seasons of 25+ home runs and 100+ RBI, etc.  He is one of the best hitters over the last decade, with very little competition.  But there are two variables that makes it hard to predict his 2015 stats, his health and age.  

Miguel Cabrera wasn't 100% healthy last year and his stats suffered.  Well, suffered compared to how he did the past few season.  A popular saying around the Tiger fandom is that a 70% Cabrera is still better than 90% of the league.  Cabrera finished with a .313/.371/.524 batting line, a line that most hitters will happily take.  His 147 wRC+ was good for T-10 in all of baseball.  However, after what Cabrera did in 2012/13, Tiger fans were expecting a bit more out of him:

Year	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
2012	0.330	0.393	0.606	166
2013	0.348	0.442	0.636	192
2014	0.313	0.371	0.524	147

Miguel Cabrera is coming off his 2nd off-season surgery in a row.  Will Cabrera be 100% healthy in 2015?  And if so, for how long?  A 70% Cabrera might still be one of the best hitters in the league, but it's still not as good as a 100% Cabrera.  

Another factor is his age.  Cabrera is entering his age 32 season, an age that usually depicts a player exiting his "prime" years and entering his decline.  Even if Cabrera is 100% healthy all season long, there is still a chance he won't be as good as his 2012/13 seasons based on age alone.  Of course there are outliers, with Victor Martinez having his best season at age 35 being a perfect example, but those occurrences are so rare that they may not even be worth mentioning.  

Miguel Cabrera failed to hit .320+ for the first time since his age 25 season and failed to hit 30+ home runs for the first time since his age 23 season.  His slugging percentage was the lowest it's been since his age 21 season.  Cabrera hit twice as many doubles in 2014 as he did in 2013.  When a young hitter is first developing his power, experts would say that all the doubles he hits will turn into home runs once he reaches his full power potential.  Well, Cabrera had the opposite effect last year.  All the home runs he hit in 2013 turned into doubles in 2014.  Whether this is more to due with his health or age I have no idea, but I'm leaning more towards age.  I think the days of Cabrera hitting 40+ home runs are gone, even if he can stay relatively healthy.  However, he should still be one of the best hitters in 2015, even if he's not #1 anymore.  

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	544	0.314	0.390	0.549	30	99	2	67	101
CAIRO	589	0.315	0.389	0.548	32	98	3	68	110
ZiPS	578	0.310	0.382	0.542	31	113	3	69	105
RotoChamp	560	0.325	0.394	0.564	31	113	2	64	99
CBS Sports	595	0.319	0.389	0.571	34	122	1	68	103
ESPN	554	0.318	0.386	0.554	29	109	2	63	101
MLB.com	568	0.313	0.387	0.548	31	107	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (44)	574	0.321	0.392	0.552	31	111	2	68	101

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2014 Prediction	561	0.332	0.430	0.585	35	114	3	96	96
2014 Actual	611	0.313	0.371	0.524	25	109	1	60	117
2015 Prediction	572	0.327	0.389	0.530	26	104	0	58	102

Fantasy Impact: Cabrera is probably not a #1 overall pick anymore.  Heck, he probably isn't the #1 first baseman anymore if Jose Abreu can repeat his rookie season.  He should still have first round value though, especially considering that he has 3B eligibility in some leagues.  

Batting Order for 2015 - J.D. Should Bat 2nd

The bigger off-season moves for the Tigers seem to be done, with Max Scherzer returning the only thing left undecided (and I give that move about a 50/50 chance of actually happening).  The Tigers have resigned Victor Martinez to be their DH again; Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez are all returning.  There will be some form of a platoon with Rajai Davis and newcomer Anthony Gose in CF while another potential platoon will happen at catcher with Alex Avila and prospect James McCann.  Jose Iglesias is (hopefully) finally healthy and will be the primary shortstop, like the Tigers envisioned when they gave up Avisail Garcia at the 2013 trade deadline.  Yoenis Cespedes is the big off-season acquisition bat and will be replacing Torii Hunter in the OF (although it's likely Cespedes will be playing LF and J.D. will be moving to RF).  

So what will the lineup look like?  A few things are set in stone, Miguel Cabrera and V-Mart will bat 3rd and 4th.  J.D. Martinez and Cespedes will be also be in the middle of the order (with one of them possibly batting 2nd).  Kinsler and/or Davis will likely be at the top and Iglesias will be at the bottom.  But what do the numbers say?  Since the Tigers are going to platoon at least 2 positions, I think there should be two distinct batting orders: one against righties and one against lefties.  

Vs. RHP:
2B Ian Kinsler (.273/.305/.417)
RF J.D. Martinez (.318/.357/.523)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.317/.373/.520)
DH Victor Martinez (.323/.402/.522)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.279/.311/.466)
3B Nick Castellanos (.266/.301/.401)
C Alex Avila (.215/.340/.380)
CF Anthony Gose (.238/.329/.312)
SS Jose Iglesias (.308/.354/.362*)

*All numbers are 2014 splits against RHP except for Iglesias, who missed all of the 2014 season.  So his splits are from 2013.  

The Tigers don't have a clear lead-off hitter here.  After placing Cabrera and V-Mart in the middle of the order, J.D. has the highest OBP remaining.  However, he's lacking the speed that a true lead-off hitter possesses and he has home run power that better suits the #2 position.  Avila has a high OBP, but again lacks speed.  Gose has a respectable OBP, but lacks experience.  Iglesias also has good numbers here, but it comes from a likely inflated BABIP and his numbers are surely going to drop after missing a whole year.  Therefore, Kinsler is the lead-off hitter by default.  Hopefully he's able to get his BB% back closer to his 8.9% career mark instead of the puny 4.0% he put up last year.  


Vs. LHP:
CF Rajai Davis (.356/.382/.557)
RF J.D. Martinez (.307/.362/.640)
1B Miguel Cabrera (.301/.364/.536)
DH Victor Martinez (.371/.430/.692)
2B Ian Kinsler (.281/.313/.427)
LF Yoenis Cespedes (.199/.269/.397)
3B Nick Castellanos (.237/.319/.374)
C James McCann (.336/.396/.469*)
SS Jose Iglesias (.294/.341/.429*)

*Again, Iglesias' splits are from 2013 and James McCann's splits are from AAA.  Everyone else's splits are from the 2014 season.

The Tigers should have a much more potent lineup against LHP.  Davis has dramatic lefty/right splits, but his lefty splits are good enough that he should be leading off.  Martinez had consistent splits vs. lefties and righties in 2014, so hopefully he's able to carry that over for 2015.  V-Mart will likely not be able to duplicate his breakout year again, but should provide enough offense for the cleanup spot.  Cespedes had unusual number against LHP in 2014, but if he's able to revert back to career norms, then he should bat 5th instead of 6th.  James McCann had great numbers vs. lefites in AAA and will provide a perfect platoon for Avila, who hits righties well enough.  Again, Iglesias benefited from an inflated BABIP in 2014 and won't be able to hit this well after missing a whole year.

Brad Ausmus may want to go with a more consistent lineup.  Davis/Gose platoon might see the bulk share of games at lead-off with Ian Kinsler batting 2nd.  Martinez and Cespedes will then bat 5th and 6th respectively and then the bottom of the order consisting of Castellanos, Avila and Iglesias.  Or he might put DavisGose at the #9 spot for the "second lead-off position" (which I don't particularly agree with).  

One thing that I hoping for is J.D. Martinez batting 2nd.  It's the next natural position to place a Tigers hitter after Cabrera and V-Mart 3rd and 4th.  And going by "The Book," it's a much more important spot than previously assumed.  Ausmus may be inclined to put Cespedes there, but he just doesn't have the OBP that fits that position.  If J.D. Martinez is the real deal (and I think he is) then he needs to batting 2nd for the Tigers.  

Evaluating Nick Castellanos' Rookie Year

If all you look at is WAR, you'd see that Nick Castellanos had a disappointing season.  According to FanGraphs, Casty was worth negative 0.5 wins while Baseball-reference says he was worth negative 1.5 wins.  Nothing is worse than being worth negative wins.  It means, "you are not good enough to be on a Major League roster."  WAR is made up of both offense and defense, so let's look at each one separately.  

Nick Castellanos hit .259/.306/.394 with 11 HR and 66 RBI.  He had a 93 OPS+ and a 94 wRC+, which shows he was slightly below league average.  Among 53 positional rookies, Casty was 18th in wRC+.  Not great, but not horrible either.  

Looking at batted ball data, one number jumps out.  His line drive rate of 28.5% was the 2nd highest in all of baseball and the highest in the American League.  Having a high line drive rate is important because line drives fall in for base hits more often then any other type of batted ball, 69% of the time in 2014 according to FanGraphs.  Players with high line drive rates typically have high batting averages (a great example is former Tiger Austin Jackson).  However, Castellanos' .259 average isn't particularly high.  Why is that?  

Batted Ball	Batted Ball Rate	Casty AVG	League AVG	Differnce
Line Drives	28.5%	71.7%	69%	2.7%
Ground Balls	35.0%	20.7%	23.9%	-3.2%
Fly Balls	36.5%	20.0%	21.2%	-1.2%

Nick Casteallos' hit rate for ground balls and fly balls were lower than league average.  If those types of batted balls fell for hits for closer to league average, Casty's overall batting average would have been closer to .270.  It could be chalked up to a little bit of bad luck.  But also, a lot of it had to do with his high strikeout rate, which ranked T-18th in all of baseball.  This is one area of his offense where he needs to improve.  

According to Brooks Baseball, Nick Castellanos had hit the fastball really well in 2014 but needs to improve on hitting breaking pitches and off-speed pitches better:

Pitch	PA	AVG	SLG
Hard	336	0.310	0.479
Breaking	133	0.188	0.278
Offspeed	74	0.122	0.189

However, looking deeper into the breaking pitches, he really wasn't that bad against curveballs:

Pitch	PA	AVG	SLG
Slider	90	0.133	0.200
Curve	38	0.316	0.474
Knuckler	4	0.250	0.250
Slow Curve	1	0.000	0.000

But now we're getting into small sample territory.  Nonetheless, an improvement on off-speed and breaking balls is a must if Castellanos is going to get to the next level.  At age 23 to start the 2015 season, he has plenty of time to get there.   

According to baseball-reference, Nick Castellanos had a positive 1.6 oWAR, which means all of his negative WAR came from defense and positional value.

Nick Castellanos was worth -30 runs on defense according to DRS and -18.4 runs according to UZR, both league worsts in 2014.  With a minimum of 400 innings at 3B, Castellanos was also the worst in RZR at .587 and the only one below .600.  Overall, Miguel Cabrera showed better defense numbers just one season ago:

Player	DRS	UZR	RZR
Nick Castellanos (2014)	-30	-18.4	0.587
Miguel Cabrera (2013)	-18	-16.8	0.656

No, I'm not advocating Miguel Cabrera moving back to 3B.  In fact, with Miggy's injury concerns, he'd probably be on par with Casty right now.  To put it in better perspective, though, Nick Castellanos had shown historically bad stats at 3B.  DRS has only been around since 2003, but Casty is only the 2nd third baseman to put up negative 30 runs.  With a minimum of 400 innings, Casty is only the 4th third baseman to put up an RZR of less than .600:

Year	Player	RZR
2007	Ryan Braun	0.564
2004	Wes Helms	0.586
2014	Nick Castellanos	0.587
2003	Troy Glaus	0.592

Of course there's a chance that these numbers are skewed as it typically takes 3 years for fielding stats to stabilize.  However, looking at these stats, there's only one other player who had a season of -30 DRS and under .600 RZR, Ryan Braun in 2007.  Braun only lasted one year at 3B before moving to LF.  A similar move might need to be made with Nick Castellanos.  With Victor Martinez potentially leaving as a Free Agent, there is an opening in the line up to possibly shift Nick to either 1B or DH (or split time between both positions with Miggy) and acquire a better defensive 3B.  Looking at the Free Agent market, one name jumps out as a great defender with an above average bat, Chase Headley.  Against most fans disapproval, it might be in the Tigers best interest to not resign V-Mart and instead go with Headley at 3B and get the disastrous defending Castellanos away from 3B.  

Just How Rare Was V-Mart's Season?

Victor Martinez hit .335/.409/.565 with 32 HR and a 166 wRC+ in 2014.  He hit career highs in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, ISO, wOBA, wRC+ and probably a few more categories that I'm missing.  It was the first time he hit at least 30 HR, had a .400 OBP and at least a .400 wOBA and a 140 wRC+.  It was only the 2nd time he reached a .500 SLG and the 3rd time he reached a .200 ISO.  No question about it, it was definitely a career year for Victor Martinez.  At the age of 35.  How rare is that?  

Using an arbitrary 165 wRC+ cutoff, here is a list of players since 1901 who reached that mark at age 35 or higher.  Several have done it more than once, so only the highest wRC+ season is listed.  

Year	Player	Age	wRC+
2002	Barry Bonds	37	244
1957	Ted Williams	38	223
1931	Babe Ruth	36	206
1910	Nap Lajoie	35	194
1971	Hank Aaron	37	191
1923	Tris Speaker	35	178
2008	Chipper Jones	36	174
1909	Honus Wagner	35	174
1944	Bob Johnson	38	169
1999	Mark McGwire	35	168
1922	Ty Cobb	35	167
1957	Stan Musial	36	167
1944	Mel Ott	35	167
2014	Victor Martinez	35	166
1924	Zack Wheat	36	166
2008	Manny Ramirez	36	165

That's a pretty impressive group of players.  Several all-stars and hall of famers.  Only one or two non-immediately recognized players.  16 players in all and V-Mart is the first to do so since 2008 when Chipper Jones and Manny Ramirez did it.  

So how many of these players were like V-Mart and had their career year at age 35 or higher?  Well, all of these players had at least 1 season of at least 150+ wRC+ prior to their age-35 season.  However, 6 of these players were like V-Mart and had their highest wRC+ at age 35 or higher.  

Player	Highest wRC+	2nd Highest wRC+	Difference
Victor Martinez	166	130	36
Bob Johnson	169	150	19
Zack Wheat	166	151	15
Hank Aaron	191	178	13
Barry Bonds	244	235	9
Chipper Jones	174	165	9
Ted Williams	223	221	2

And here we see the biggest difference between Victor Martinez and everyone else on this list.  The difference between V-Mart's best wRC+ season and his 2nd highest wRC+ season was bigger than the other 6.  Almost twice as much as the 2nd biggest difference, in fact.

Yep, I would say that puts V-Mart's season in very rare company.