2014 Preseason Prediction #4 - Victor Martinez

It was hard to anticipate what to expect from Victor Martinez in 2013 after missing the whole 2012 season due to a torn ACL.  Former Tiger Scott Sizemore suffered the same injury in 2012 and only appeared in 2 games in 2013 before re-tearing it, causing him to miss the rest of the season.  Luckily for Martinez, he was able to stay healthy all year, and had a very Victor Martinez-like season, hitting .301/.355/.430 with 14 HR.  

However, it was a tale of half seasons for V-Mart, probably needing a few months to readjust to the league:

2013 Season	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	392	0.258	0.314	0.380	0.693
2nd Half	276	0.361	0.413	0.500	0.913

That .361 batting average led all of baseball in the 2nd half and was reminiscent to the type of hitter he was in his first year as a Tiger in 2011, when he batted .330 on the year.  Not to totally dismiss his first half last year, there are some similarities in his second half and his 2011 season:

	PA	BABIP	ISO	BB%	K%	HR%
2011 Season	595	0.343	0.141	7.7%	8.6%	2.0%
2nd Half of 2013	276	0.371	0.139	8.0%	6.5%	2.2%

V-Mart only hit for a BABIP as high as .340 once before 2011, back in 2006 when it was .341.  Could be an adjustment here for hitting in Comerica Park, therefore it's not out of the question for him to have a high BABIP again in 2014, although almost certainly not as high as .370.  His batted ball data has been pretty consistent throughout his whole career, but his line drive rate has been up a tick with the Tigers, further suggesting a slight change in approach.  V-Mart had a .184 ISO with the Red Sox and a .166 ISO with the Indians, so there's definitely a decline in power, probably a combination of getting old and hitting half his games at Comerica Park.  

So, what to expect for 2014?  There is certainly a luck factor in his second half last year, and he's going to be 35, so we have an age factor to consider.  He's also going to move up in the order, batting 4th instead of 5th.  Applying a BABIP of around .325-.330, a walk rate between 7-8%, a strikeout rate around 9% and an ISO of around .135 and a slight increase in RBI for hitting 4th, and the stats write themselves.

Experts' Predictions/Projections:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
Steamer	524	0.293	0.354	0.445	15	74	2	50	59
Oliver	545	0.294	0.348	0.417	12	70	1	46	56
ZiPS	471	0.291	0.341	0.425	12	69	1	38	48
RotoChamp	519	0.295	0.354	0.435	13	75	1	-	-
CBS Sports	590	0.300	0.356	0.444	16	85	0	51	61
ESPN	586	0.300	0.352	0.440	16	94	0	50	60
MLB.com	585	0.304	0.358	0.424	13	81	1	-	-
FanGraphs' Fans (29)	560	0.302	0.353	0.432	13	73	0	48	57

My Prediction:

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	SB	BB	K
2013 Prediction	526	0.310	0.360	0.445	12	75	0	43	52
2013 Actual	605	0.301	0.355	0.430	14	83	0	54	62
2014 Prediction	564	0.309	0.360	0.441	13	91	0	48	59

Fantasy Impact:  V-Mart no longer has catcher eligibility, which hurts his overall value.  He's not going to hit for a ton of HR power nor is he going to steal bases.  He can only be used as a 1B or a DH, where there are plenty of other options to get 25-30 HR or 30-40 SB.  He'll only help you in batting average, and it's probably not worth a 1B or DH slot for that.  Unless you're in an AL-Only league, it's probably safe to pass on V-Mart this year.  

2014 Preseason Prediction #3 - Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer had a breakout season last year with a 2.90 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and an astonishing 21-3 record that earned him the American League Cy Young Award.  Now this raises 2 questions: what did he do differently in 2013 and can he repeat this performance for 2014?

First, batted ball data from Baseball Reference:

	LD%	GB%	FB%
2011	19.5%	41.0%	39.5%
2012	18.8%	37.1%	44.2%
2013	19.1%	37.7%	43.3%

There's a noticeable shift from ground balls to flyballs going from 2011 to 2012.  2012 looks very similar to 2013, though.  

Scherzer was 4th in MLB with a .196 batting average against, an improvement from .248 and .269 the previous 2 years.  Here were his batting averages against by batted ball:

	LD AVG	GB AVG	FB AVG
2011	0.761	0.288	0.218
2012	0.733	0.337	0.246
2013	0.660	0.260	0.139

Scherzer didn't suffer from a high ground ball average that most of the other Tigers pitchers faced.  In fact, Scherzer's BABIP was at .259 after being over .300 the last 2 years and a career .302 mark.  There might be some regression here for 2014.  

Scherzer primarly throws a 4-seam fastball, a change-up and slider.  The following data is taken from Brooks Baseball:

4-Seamer	AB	BAA
2011	446	0.296
2012	398	0.246
2013	418	0.201

His fastball has gotten better and better over the last couple of years.

Change-up	AB	BAA
2011	211	0.228
2012	177	0.283
2013	231	0.225

His change-up was about just as effective in 2013 as it was in 2011.  There was a hiccup in 2012.

Slider	AB	BAA
2011	156	0.244
2012	145	0.186
2013	146	0.137

Just like his 4-seamer, his slider has also improved every year over the last couple of years.

Pitch usage, also using Brooks Baseball data:

	4-Seamer	Sinker	Changeup	Slider	Curveball
2011	61.4%	0.0%	20.5%	18.1%	0.0%
2012	59.9%	1.0%	19.7%	17.7%	1.7%
2013	56.7%	0.0%	21.1%	14.8%	7.4%

There are 2 things that I notice here, one is that his 4-seam fastball usage has gone down each year (although this hasn't effected his strikeouts as he can get a strikeout from any one of his pitches).  Also, he has started to use a curveball in 2013, mostly against left-handed hitters, with much success.  Left-handers hit his curveball at a .180 clip last year.  If he can build upon this, there might not be as much of a regression in 2014.  Overall:

	Vs. RHB	Vs. LHB
2011	0.262	0.281
2012	0.201	0.292
2013	0.165	0.222

It looks like much of Scherzer's success has come from his ability to mix up his pitches and the usage of a curveball to get left-handed hitters out.  At 29 years old, there's reason to believe that can at least come close to repeating this for 2014.

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	192	14-9	3.37	1.15	205	56
Oliver	200	14-8	3.28	1.16	217	55
ZiPS	193 2/3	-	3.35	1.14	165	55
RotoChamp	196	13-9	3.31	1.14	211	56
CBS Sports	210	18-8	3.04	1.12	229	54
ESPN	210	16 W	3.34	1.12	231	56
MLB.com	205	16-7	3.38	1.13	230	57
FanGraphs' Fans (28)	210	16-8	3.21	1.12	238	58

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	196 1/3	17-7	3.39	1.228	206	59
2013 Actual	214 1/3	21-3	2.90	0.970	240	56
2014 Prediction	205 2/3	17-6	3.28	1.113	238	58

Fantasy Impact:  Clayton Kershaw has been the first starting pitcher off the board.  After that, Scherzer, Yu Darvish, Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg have been going in no particular order in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  I personally like to wait for starting pitchers, so I won't be owning Scherzer this year (unlike last year).  However, if you want him and can get him in the 3rd round, that's good value. 

2014 Preseason Prediction #2 - Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander had a disappointing season last year by his standards.  He was only 1 game above a .500 record (13-12) and his ERA was near 3.50 after being around 2.50 the previous 2 years.  While he was able to pitch over 200 innings, he wasn't his typical workhorse self.  He failed to get to 220 innings and pitch at least 3 CG for the first time since 2008.  His innings pitched/games started was also the lowest since 2008.

At the age of 31, Verlander might be showing signs of a natural aging bell curve.  From 2009-2012, Verlander was dominant in strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, leading to an FIP of below 3 in each year.  Last year, his walks were raised and therefore, his FIP was above 3:

Year	SO%	BB%	HR%	FIP
2009	27.4%	6.4%	2.0%	2.80
2010	23.7%	7.7%	1.5%	2.97
2011	25.8%	5.9%	2.5%	2.99
2012	25.0%	6.3%	2.0%	2.94
2013	23.5%	8.1%	2.1%	3.28

There is an obvious sign of loss in velocity, according to Pitch f/x:

Year	FB Average  Velocity
2009	95.6
2010	95.5
2011	95.0
2012	94.7
2013	94.0

Lee Panas suggested that Verlander was adjusting to become more of a finesse pitcher instead of a power pitcher.  At the time that article was written, Verlander had a 3.90 ERA, a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 8.4% walk rate.  For the remaining 18 games, he had a 3.12 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate and a 7.9% walk rate.  The improvement was most likely due to a regression in BABIP (going from a .347 mark in his first 16 games to a .294 mark in his last 18 games).  

One reason for the improved BABIP, might have been due to the acquisition of Jose Iglesias.  The Tigers pitching allowed the highest average on ground balls last year with a .270 average while the league average was at .240.  No question the Tigers improved defense will help the pitching staff this year, even Justin Verlander.  According to Baseball Reference:

	GB AVG	FB AVG	LD AVG
2011	0.213	0.145	0.685
2012	0.184	0.180	0.764
2013	0.293	0.157	0.687

Verlander's ground ball batting average against was up 109 points from the previous year (a trend from many of the Tigers pitchers).  An improved walk rate and better infield defense will get Verlander closer to the pitcher he once was.

Experts' Projections/Predictions:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
Steamer	192	14-10	3.62	1.21	179	57
Oliver	232	17-9	3.14	1.16	225	64
ZiPS	216 2/3	-	3.07	1.14	225	60
RotoChamp	194	14-8	3.39	1.21	188	59
CBS Sports	230	19-8	2.97	1.19	233	69
ESPN	209	15 W	3.23	1.17	190	61
MLB.com	215	16-9	3.35	1.16	210	56
FanGraphs' Fans (32)	226	17-8	3.06	1.14	221	64

My Prediction:

	IP	W/L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2013 Prediction	240 1/3	18-7	2.77	1.036	235	59
2013 Actual	218 1/3	13-12	3.46	1.315	217	75
2014 Prediction	229	17-8	2.91	1.109	223	70

Obviously I'm going on the optimistic side here.  Here's hoping I'm not wrong.  

Fantasy Impact: Verlander is no longer going in the first 2 rounds of a standard draft and his injury has definitely hurt his average draft pick.  However, he has been ahead of schedule and  I believe he can still be a top 10 pitcher.  If you can get him in the 5th round, that would be really good value.